Predictability of Scrub Typhus Incidences Time Series in Thailand

Scrub typhus, an infectious disease caused by a bacterium transmitted “chigger” mites, constitutes public health problem in Thailand. Predicting epidemic peaks would allow implementing preventive measures locally. This study analyses the predictability of time series incidence scrub typhus aggregated at provincial level. After stationarizing series, evaluation Hurst exponents indicates provinces where epidemiological dynamics present long memory and are predictable. The predictive performances ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average model), ARFIMA fractionally average) fractional Brownian motion models evaluated. results constitute reference level for data this zoonosis.